Abstract

This study utilizes the Logistic Growth Curve (LGC) based forecast model to assess the effectiveness of Stay At Home (SAH) Order on COVID-19 pandemic spread in California while making comparisons and visualizations for multiple countries. In comparing results, previous work relied on confirmed or death cases which not scientifically valid due to the differences of population sizes of each country. We presented several methods being used in the past and how we utilize percentages, normalization and derivatives to help our evaluation and comparisons of several countries using our model. Our approach compared the spread of the virus considering the growth rate and developed a quantitative measure that can help compare quantitatively between multiple states or countries. In our analysis, we showed evidence to suggest that the forecast results correspond to the progress and effectiveness of the SAH Order in flattening the curve, which is useful in controlling the spike in the number of active COVID-19 patients.